Japan has urged “all parties concerned to exhaust diplomatic efforts to ease tensions,” following Iran’s attack on military bases in Iraq housing US troops.

Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the government is “deeply concerned over escalating tensions” in the Middle East, adding that “further escalation must be avoided.”

He confirmed that the country’s National Security Council met Wednesday to discuss the situation, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the ministers of defense and foreign affairs.

Suga added that the government is currently deciding whether a planned trip by Abe to the Middle East will go ahead, but a plan to send a Self-Defense Forces ship and two aircraft to the region will remain on course for the time being.

That mission is aimed at gathering information to ensure the safe passage of Japanese commercial shipping through the Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Aden and the northern Arabian Sea.

A Japanese oil tanker was attacked in June this year in the Gulf of Oman.


 

Iran’s strikes seem intended to avoid US deaths — here’s why that might be the case

Iran’s missile strikes against bases in Iraq housing US troops was not a response designed to kill the most Americans possible.

Iran will have known that in the early hours of the morning, US troops are normally asleep and the chances of inflicting casualties are lower.

Iran will also have known the US has a strong air defense that would likely have been on high alert. Tehran should have a grasp of how well its missiles would fare against such technology.

The missile attacks don’t make sense if Tehran’s goal was to really hurt US troops in large numbers — like some had been pledging to do. They do make sense however as the execution of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s order to strike back openly against US military targets in response to the killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani.

Khamenei’s instruction was confusing when first reported, as the US is bound to prevail in a straight military-to-military conflict. Was the Supreme Leader ordering an empty show of force?

The dust is still settling, and even at the best of times Iran’s motivations can be opaque, but there are three possible explanations for the action.

  • First, that Khamenei is out of touch with what his military can achieve and overestimated the effectiveness of the strikes, which then failed. This would be surprising given his reported involvement in and knowledge of Iranian military affairs.
  • Second, that moderation won out, and this largely empty signal — hitting military targets in the dead of night with a small number of missiles — provides the off-ramp both sides might ultimately want. This would be logical, given neither Tehran nor Washington have much to gain from a prolonged fight.
  • Third, this might be a bid by Iran to put the US into a false sense of security — that Iran is militarily weak and has done its worse — while an asymmetrical and nastier response is brewed. That would require a lot of strategic acumen from a government split between hardline and moderate wings, and means Tehran was relatively assured no Americans would be hurt in this missile attack.

If the attacks in Iraq are indeed the full scope of Iran’s response, they carry with them another risk: that the Trump administration think their ramshackle performance over the last week has paid off, and Iran has been vanquished. This would risk further irrational action from Washington, perhaps not just against Iran but also other enemies. It also makes Iran look weak, which may embolden Tehran’s other regional adversaries.

Iran’s response to the killing of Soleimani was always going to be difficult to predict. But — if the strikes truly are the entirety of Tehran’s revenge — few would have anticipated something so swift and so openly military-to-military.


US troops were patrolling outside their bases after attack on al-Assad, military official says

US troops were actively patrolling outside their bases with Iraqi partners in the hours after Iran targeted two military bases that house US troops in Iraq, according to a military official who did not want to be named.

Drones and attack helicopters were flying around bases housing US troops, the official said.


New Zealand calls for restraint following airstrikes

New Zealand’s Foreign Minister and acting-Prime Minister Winston Peters called for “restraint and de-escalation, and for diplomacy to take over” in a statement to the media following the attacks.

“The government is working actively with our partners through military and diplomatic channels, and we continue to keep the security situation under close review, including implications for our personnel,” Peters said.

“It is important to note that the missile attacks did not target Camp Taji and the government has been informed that all New Zealand personnel are as safe as they can be in these developing circumstances.”

Multiple countries have forces based in Iraq as part of the coalition against ISIS. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is currently out of the country.


It’s morning in Baghdad and Iraqis are waking up to the news

Dawn has broken in Baghdad, where Iraqis are just waking up to the news that Iranians fired ballistic missiles at US positions in their country.

Through the night, US helicopters had hovered overhead. To Iraqis now familiar with the sounds of war, that would have been the first sign that something was afoot.

After the attacks, the motors of an AC-130 Specter Gunship could be heard humming over central Baghdad’s Green Zone, which houses the US embassy. The aircraft is one of the most devastating ground attack aircraft in the US arsenal.

Across the capital, Iraqis are hoping that their country does not, once again, turn into a proxy battleground for the US and Iran. For decades, Iraqis have suffered from cycles of violence, invasions, sanctions, terror bombings and brutal crackdowns, and in a series of protests last year fiercely called for an end to foreign influence and meddling.


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